This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, on or before 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, Jair Bolsonaro is found guilty by a final, non-appealable decision in Brazil for any crime related to his alleged attempt to undermine Brazilian democracy, including but not limited to attempted coup d'état, abolition of the democratic rule of law, or involvement in a criminal organization, as charged in 2025.

Otherwise, 'No'.

If Bolsonaro is convicted but the decision is under appeal or not yet final as of the resolution date, the market will resolve to 'No'.

If Bolsonaro dies or is permanently incapacitated before a final, non-appealable decision is reached, the market will resolve to 'No'.

If the trial is postponed beyond the resolution date, the market will resolve to 'No'.

Primary resolution sources: official court records from the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) and reporting from major international news outlets such as (usnews.com)(https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-03-27/brazil-ex-president-bolsonaro-will-stand-trial-over-an-alleged-coup-plan-heres-what-happens-next), (cnn.com)(https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/26/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-stand-trial-coup-charges), (npr.org)(https://www.npr.org/2025/08/05/nx-s1-5492994/brazil-bolsonaro-supreme-court-house-arrest), and (bloomberg.com)(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-04/bolsonaro-ordered-into-house-arrest-for-disobeying-brazil-court).