This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, on or before 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, Jair Bolsonaro is publicly and officially convicted (final judgment issued by a court of competent jurisdiction, as reported by the court itself) in a Brazilian court of law for attempting to subvert Brazilian democracy, including but not limited to charges of coup plotting, attempting to overturn the 2022 election, or inciting/organizing the January 8, 2023 attacks on government institutions.

Otherwise, 'No'.

Conviction must be reported by at least two of the following sources: (Supremo Tribunal Federal)(https://portal.stf.jus.br/), (Superior Tribunal de Justiça)(https://www.stj.jus.br/), (Diário Oficial da União)(https://www.in.gov.br/), (NPR)(https://www.npr.org/), (UPI)(https://www.upi.com/).

If Bolsonaro is convicted on appeal but the conviction is overturned before the deadline, market resolves 'No'.

If Bolsonaro dies, flees Brazil, or is otherwise unable to stand trial before a verdict is reached, market resolves 'No'.

If no public conviction is announced by the deadline, market resolves 'No'.

If credible public reporting is unavailable or conflicting, resolution will be based on the majority consensus of the listed sources.