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U.S. to strike Iran by Jan 31, 2026?

Market Details

63%chance

$11,157.72 vol.

Description

This market concerns whether the United States will conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory before the end of January 31, 2026.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the United States government officially confirms or if there are credible and widespread reports from major international news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or BBC) of a military strike conducted by U.S. forces on Iranian territory between 10 January 2026, 18:19 (UTC) and 31 January 2026, 23:59 (UTC).
2
A strike is defined as a direct attack using military force. It does not include cyberattacks, covert operations, or actions by proxy forces.
3
If no such confirmation or reporting of a strike occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to 'No'.
4
If the necessary data for resolution is unavailable for any reason a week after the event deadline, the market will resolve to 'No'.

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US to acquire Greenland by end of 2026?

Market Details

18%chance

$8,500.47 vol.

Description

This market concerns whether the United States will officially announce that Greenland will come under US sovereignty on or before December 31, 2026.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the government of the United States of America officially announces that Greenland has come under its sovereignty between 10 January 2026, 17:32 (UTC) and 31 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
2
Resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of the United States or Denmark. In the absence of such announcements, reports from major news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or The New York Times) will be considered authoritative.
3
If no official announcement or credible news report is made by 07 January 2027, 23:59 (UTC), this market will resolve to 'No'.

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Iranian regime to fall by end of 2026?

Market Details

55%chance

$5,728.07 vol.

Description

This market is about whether the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to govern by the end of 2026. The regime is considered to have fallen if it is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise stops exercising governmental authority.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern between 10 January 2026, 17:28 (UTC+00:00) and 31 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
2
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible, major international news outlets, such as the Associated Press, Reuters, the BBC, and The New York Times.
3
If the necessary information is not available from the resolution source a week after the event's deadline, by 07 January 2027, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.

Comments

worm

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Khamenei to cease as Iran's Supreme Leader?

Market Details

21%chance

$13,263.81 vol.

Description

This market is about the political status of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. It will resolve based on whether he officially ceases to hold his position by the end of January 2026.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Ali Khamenei is no longer the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason, including but not limited to death, resignation, or removal from office, by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
2
The resolution deadline for this market is January 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
3
Resolution will be based on reports from a consensus of major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, AFP).
4
If there is no official announcement or clear evidence of a change in his status by the deadline, the market will resolve to 'No'.

Comments

worm

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Lula to win Brazil's 2026 presidency?

Market Details

53%chance

$6,467.95 vol.

Description

This market predicts whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ('Lula') will be officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election in Brazil, in either the first or second round. The resolution will be based on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announcement.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (including either the first round scheduled for 4 October 2026 or, if necessary, the second round on 25 October 2026) by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil.
2
If the election is postponed, cancelled, or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is not declared winner by 1 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.
3
Resolution will be based on the official results as published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE): https://www.tse.jus.br/.

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U.S. to strike Iran by Jan 31, 2026?

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Comments

worm

Win

U.S. to strike Iran by Jan 31, 2026?

Market Details

63%chance

$11,157.72 vol.

Description

This market concerns whether the United States will conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory before the end of January 31, 2026.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the United States government officially confirms or if there are credible and widespread reports from major international news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or BBC) of a military strike conducted by U.S. forces on Iranian territory between 10 January 2026, 18:19 (UTC) and 31 January 2026, 23:59 (UTC).
2
A strike is defined as a direct attack using military force. It does not include cyberattacks, covert operations, or actions by proxy forces.
3
If no such confirmation or reporting of a strike occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to 'No'.
4
If the necessary data for resolution is unavailable for any reason a week after the event deadline, the market will resolve to 'No'.

Comments

worm

Win?x

US to acquire Greenland by end of 2026?

Market Details

18%chance

$8,500.47 vol.

Description

This market concerns whether the United States will officially announce that Greenland will come under US sovereignty on or before December 31, 2026.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the government of the United States of America officially announces that Greenland has come under its sovereignty between 10 January 2026, 17:32 (UTC) and 31 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
2
Resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of the United States or Denmark. In the absence of such announcements, reports from major news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or The New York Times) will be considered authoritative.
3
If no official announcement or credible news report is made by 07 January 2027, 23:59 (UTC), this market will resolve to 'No'.

Comments

worm

Win?x

Iranian regime to fall by end of 2026?

Market Details

55%chance

$5,728.07 vol.

Description

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the current ruling regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern between 10 January 2026, 17:28 (UTC+00:00) and 31 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
2
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible, major international news outlets, such as the Associated Press, Reuters, the BBC, and The New York Times.
3
If the necessary information is not available from the resolution source a week after the event's deadline, by 07 January 2027, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.

Comments

worm

Win?x

Khamenei to cease as Iran's Supreme Leader?

Market Details

21%chance

$13,263.81 vol.

Description

This market is about the political status of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. It will resolve based on whether he officially ceases to hold his position by the end of January 2026.

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Ali Khamenei is no longer the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason, including but not limited to death, resignation, or removal from office, by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
2
The resolution deadline for this market is January 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
3
Resolution will be based on reports from a consensus of major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, AFP).
4
If there is no official announcement or clear evidence of a change in his status by the deadline, the market will resolve to 'No'.

Comments

worm

Win?x

Lula to win Brazil's 2026 presidency?

Market Details

53%chance

$6,467.95 vol.

Description

Outcomes

Yes

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (including either the first round scheduled for 4 October 2026 or, if necessary, the second round on 25 October 2026) by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil.
2
If the election is postponed, cancelled, or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is not declared winner by 1 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.
3
Resolution will be based on the official results as published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE): https://www.tse.jus.br/.