This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Jair Bolsonaro, former President of Brazil, is convicted by a Brazilian court of crimes related to attempting to usurp Brazilian democracy (including but not limited to attempted coup d'état, violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, or similar charges) by 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z. Otherwise, 'No'.

Conviction must be publicly announced and verifiable via official court documents or reputable news sources. Appeals or ongoing legal processes after the initial conviction do not affect resolution; only the first court verdict is considered.

If Bolsonaro is convicted of lesser or unrelated charges, or only charged/arrested but not convicted, the market resolves 'No'.

If Bolsonaro dies, flees, or is otherwise unable to be tried before the resolution date, the market resolves 'No'.

If credible, authoritative public sources are unavailable by the resolution date, the market is void.

Primary sources: (Supremo Tribunal Federal)(https://portal.stf.jus.br/), (reuters.com)(https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-general-prosecutor-charges-bolsonaro-alleged-coup-plot-2025-02-19/), (npr.org)(https://www.npr.org/2025/06/10/nx-s1-5428548/bolsonaro-takes-the-stand-in-historic-coup-trial), (nbcnews.com)(https://www.nbcnews.com/world/south-america/brazils-supreme-court-orders-house-arrest-former-president-bolsonaro-rcna223008)