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Another US government shutdown by Jan 31, 2026?

Market Details

27%chance

$4,762.63 vol.

Description

This market predicts whether the US government will enter another shutdown at any time between 23 December 2025, 09:19 (UTC+00:00) and 31 January 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00). Resolution is based on official US government communications and reputable major news organizations reporting a shutdown.

Outcomes

Yes

No

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, at any time between 23 December 2025, 09:19 (UTC+00:00) and 31 January 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), the US federal government undergoes a shutdown of any duration, meaning non-essential government services are suspended due to a lapse in appropriations.
2
Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No'.
3
If no authoritative public record or reputable news outlet reports a confirmed government shutdown during this period, the market will resolve to 'No'.
4
If data or records necessary to determine shutdown status for this period are not available by 7 February 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), the market will resolve to 'No'.
5
Resolution sources include official US government websites (e.g., usa.gov/shutdowns) and reputable major news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).

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US–Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31, 2025?

Market Details

0%chance

$10,827.03 vol.

Description

This market predicts whether an explicit armed engagement between US and Venezuelan armed forces will occur by 31 December 2025. Resolution will be based on credible reports or official statements from reputable global news outlets or government sources.

Outcomes

Yes

No

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if there is an explicit armed engagement between the armed forces of the United States and Venezuela within Venezuelan territory, airspace, or territorial waters at any time from 16 December 2025, 08:19 (UTC+00:00) through 31 December 2025, 23:59 (UTC+00:00). Otherwise, 'No'.
2
If no clear evidence of such an engagement is available from authoritative public sources (U.S. Department of Defense, Venezuelan government, Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or comparable global news organizations) by 7 January 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.
3
All times are stated in UTC.

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Trump to nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?

Market Details

41%chance

$10,425.98 vol.

Description

This market predicts whether Donald Trump, as President, will formally nominate Kevin Hassett to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official nomination records from the U.S. Senate.

Outcomes

Yes

No

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by 31 December 2026, 23:59 (ET) (01 January 2027, 04:59 UTC), Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates Kevin Hassett as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve by submitting a nomination message to the U.S. Senate
2
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless Kevin Hassett is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve as defined above.
3
If, by the deadline, Trump has not formally nominated Kevin Hassett to this position, the market will resolve to 'No'.
4
If the required information is not available from the U.S. Senate or credible news reporting within seven days of the deadline, the market will resolve to 'No'.
5
Resolution will be based on official nomination records from the U.S. Senate (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm). Consensus credible reporting may be used if necessary.

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Miami to beat Ohio State on Dec 31?

Market Details

100%chance

$4,449.38 vol.

Description

This market predicts whether Miami (the Hurricanes) will win their College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against Ohio State on 31 December 2025 at AT&T Stadium. The market resolves using the official game result as published by NCAA and ESPN.

Outcomes

Yes

No

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Miami (the Hurricanes) is declared the winner of the scheduled College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against Ohio State played on 31 December 2025 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Otherwise, 'No'.
2
If the game is postponed, cancelled, or not completed by 7 January 2026, 23:59 (UTC-05:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.
3
The official result as published by the NCAA (ncaa.com) and ESPN (espn.com) will be used for resolution.

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Lula to win Brazil's 2026 presidency?

Market Details

51%chance

$4,337.06 vol.

Description

This market predicts whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ('Lula') will be officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election in Brazil, in either the first or second round. The resolution will be based on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announcement.

Outcomes

Yes

No

Rules

1
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (including either the first round scheduled for 4 October 2026 or, if necessary, the second round on 25 October 2026) by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil.
2
If the election is postponed, cancelled, or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is not declared winner by 1 December 2026, 23:59 (UTC+00:00), this market will resolve to 'No'.
3
Resolution will be based on the official results as published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE): https://www.tse.jus.br/.

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TikTok removed from US app stores 30+ days?

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TikTok removed from US app stores 30 days?

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100%

Nuggets to beat Raptors on Dec 31?

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Equatorial Guinea to beat Algeria?

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100%

Miami to beat Ohio State on Dec 31?

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0%

Pelicans to beat Bulls on Dec 31, 2025?

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